Working Capital Analysis — NWC Peg, Turnover | Shepi

    Working Capital Analysis for M&A Due Diligence

    Published February 2026

    Working capital is the cash engine of a business. Getting the peg wrong means you're either overpaying at close or underfunding the business post-acquisition.

    12–24 mo

    Typical NWC peg lookback period

    DSO + DIO − DPO

    Cash conversion cycle formula

    #1

    Most negotiated QoE line item

    What Is Net Working Capital?

    Net working capital (NWC) is the difference between a company's current operating assets and current operating liabilities. It represents the capital required to fund day-to-day operations.

    In M&A, NWC excludes cash, debt, and debt-like items — it focuses on the operating cycle: accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, and deferred revenue.

    Why Working Capital Matters in M&A

    Purchase price adjustment

    Most deals include a working capital mechanism — the purchase price adjusts if NWC at close differs from the agreed peg

    Cash at close

    A buyer who underestimates NWC needs may face a cash crunch immediately post-acquisition

    Manipulation risk

    Sellers can inflate NWC pre-close by delaying AP payments or accelerating AR collections

    Seasonal businesses

    NWC swings dramatically in seasonal businesses — the peg methodology matters significantly

    Working Capital Peg Calculation

    The working capital peg (or target) is the normalized level of NWC the seller agrees to deliver at closing. If actual NWC at close exceeds the peg, the buyer pays the surplus. If it falls short, the purchase price is reduced dollar-for-dollar.

    Trailing average

    Most common method — average NWC over the trailing 12 or 24 months

    Median approach

    Uses median rather than mean to reduce the impact of outlier months

    Normalized approach

    Adjusts individual components for known anomalies before averaging

    Collar mechanism

    Some deals use a collar (e.g., ±$50K) where small deviations don't trigger adjustments

    Key Components of NWC

    Accounts receivable

    Amounts owed by customers — review aging, concentration, and bad debt reserves

    Inventory

    Raw materials, WIP, and finished goods — watch for obsolescence and slow-moving items

    Prepaid expenses

    Insurance, rent, and other prepayments — ensure they reflect normal operating levels

    Accounts payable

    Amounts owed to suppliers — verify payment terms are maintained at historical levels

    Accrued liabilities

    Wages, taxes, and other accruals — confirm they're adequate and consistently applied

    Deferred revenue

    Prepayments from customers for future services — a current liability that reduces NWC

    Turnover Ratios & Cash Conversion

    Turnover ratios reveal how efficiently the business converts working capital into cash:

    Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)

    AR ÷ Revenue × 365 — how quickly customers pay. Rising DSO signals collection issues

    Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO)

    Inventory ÷ COGS × 365 — how long inventory sits. Rising DIO may indicate obsolescence

    Days Payable Outstanding (DPO)

    AP ÷ COGS × 365 — how slowly the company pays suppliers. Falling DPO may indicate strained vendor relationships

    Cash Conversion Cycle

    DSO + DIO − DPO — the total days from cash out to cash in. Lower is better

    Seasonality Adjustments

    Seasonal businesses require special attention in NWC analysis. A landscaping company's NWC in January looks very different from July. Using a simple trailing average without adjusting for seasonality produces a misleading peg.

    Monthly NWC mapping

    Chart NWC by month to visualize seasonal patterns

    Same-month comparison

    Compare each month to the same month in prior years

    Close date awareness

    If closing in a high-NWC month, a trailing average peg may be unfair to the seller

    Normalized peg

    Some deals use a seasonally-adjusted peg formula rather than a fixed dollar amount

    Working Capital Analysis Process

    1

    Define included accounts

    Agree on which balance sheet accounts are in vs out of NWC (exclude cash, debt, tax-related)

    2

    Build monthly NWC schedule

    Calculate NWC for each month in the analysis period (typically 24 months)

    3

    Identify anomalies

    Flag months with unusual spikes or dips — investigate root causes

    4

    Normalize components

    Adjust individual line items for known one-time events

    5

    Calculate the peg

    Apply the agreed methodology (trailing average, median, normalized)

    6

    Analyze turnover trends

    Review DSO, DIO, DPO trends for signs of manipulation or deterioration

    7

    Assess seasonality

    Determine if seasonal adjustments are needed based on the closing timeline

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Related Resources

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